A monumental night for Leeds - what does it mean in survival scrap?
A monumental night for Leeds - what does it mean in survival scrap?
A memorable victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford has handed Leeds United a priceless lifeline in their quest for Premier League survival.
With their 2-1 win on Monday night, they moved to 36 points to open a six-point buffer between them and the relegation zone with six matches left.
Their first league win against Manchester United since 2002 and a first at Old Trafford since 1981 sparked huge celebrations at the final whistle, as manager Daniel Farke and his players soaked up the support from their vocal travelling fans.
"Tired. Relieved. Proud of the boys," Farke summed up his emotions after the win, which was their first at Old Trafford in 19 visits.
The Leeds manager told Sky Sports: "We are in the crunch time of the season and it's important to keep your nerves and stick to your plan.
"It's the first win in Premier League history here for forty years. It's amazing, and of course a big step forward."
For a club that have been flirting dangerously with relegation for much of the season, the triumph over Michael Carrick's side felt like more than three points.
While their top-flight status is far from guaranteed despite the win, what it does is allow Leeds to breathe a little easier while piling the pressure on fellow strugglers Tottenham, West Ham and Nottingham Forest.
"It's a monumental night for Leeds United," former Manchester United defender Gary Neville told Sky Sports.
"Farke will have been nervous about the fact that Leeds were going perilously close to relegation. This victory goes a long way to securing their Premier League status."
It was Noah Okafor who stepped up with two first-half goals to secure a much-needed win, as Casemiro's 69th-minute goal proved mere consolation for Carrick's side, who played most of the second half with 10 men.
Neville added: "They fully deserved it over the course of the 90 minutes. They were the better team."
'Easy to make history but points tally all that matters'
Leeds went into the fixture having not scored in any of their past four league games. They had not netted with any of their past 64 shots.
But five minutes was all it took for Switzerland winger Okafor to net the opener with a smart first-time finish - Leeds' first league goal in 51 days.
He then doubled their lead in the 29th minute when his effort took a deflection off Leny Yoro on its way past Manchester United goalkeeper Senne Lammens.
"To every player, every staff member that is with us, it's a big compliment because we were fighting to the end and we deserved the three points," Okafor told Sky Sports after helping end his club's six-game winless league run.
Leeds will hope the victory will be the wind in their sails as they look to add to their points tally when hosting bottom side Wolves on Saturday, 18 April (15:00 BST).
Dominic Calvert-Lewin, their top scorer with 10 goals, said as much after the game.
"It's important we don't read too much into the external noise and continue to focus on what's in front of us," he told Sky Sports.
"It's easy to come here and make history, but it doesn't matter come the end of the season when the points tallies are in. That's all we're focused on.
"One game after another - making sure that we stay in the Premier League."
His manager Farke echoed Calvert-Lewin's sentiments.
"We have to stay humble," he said. "We are not perfect. We are not the finished, end product. We are on a good path, on the way to achieving something really positive this season."
After the FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea on 26 April, they will face fellow relegation candidates Burnley, Tottenham and West Ham in their final four games of the season.
Getting 36 points on the board should offer a huge psychological boost for Leeds.
Teams finishing on 36 or more points in each of the past nine Premier League seasons have avoided relegation.
In the 20-team Premier League era, starting from the 1995-96 season, the average number of points earned by the team finishing 18th is 35.53.
In those 30 seasons of 38 games, 36 points has ensured survival 60% of the time.
The rate of survival increases to 80% for 38 points, 90% for 40 points and 100% for 43 or more points.
So does that mean Leeds have virtually guaranteed survival this season?
Not really.
That is because this season is on track to be the toughest to survive for a decade.
According to Opta's supercomputer, Tottenham are now favourites to go down at 48.7%. But Spurs, sitting 18th, are on 30 points and projected to finish on 37 by Opta - meaning 38 points would be needed for survival.
West Ham, currently 17th, hold the record for the team relegated with the most points in the 20-team era - in 2002-03 when they picked up 42 points but still went down.
"The reality is that performance-wise we should already [have] far more than 40 points," Farke said.
"This team has performed over the whole season with unbelievable consistency.
"But we are on 36 points, a few more points are needed. For now, three points closer but nothing is achieved yet."
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